Flyers Forecast

As we step back into the NHL season, the Flyers resume play tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.  In addition, the trade deadline is in 27 hours, at 3:00 tomorrow afternoon, right before the Flyers take on the Florida Panthers.  As it stands right now, the Flyers are sixth in the Eastern Conference with 67 points, 8 behind 5th place Buffalo, and 10 behind division leader New Jersey, although the Flyers have one game in hand on the Devils.  We’ll take a quick look at the rest of the schedule.

Home (10): Maple Leafs, Islanders, Bruins, Blackhawks, Thrashers, Wild, Devils, Canadiens, Red Wings, Rangers

Away (12): Lightning, Panthers, Sabres, Rangers (2), Predators, Stars, Thrashers, Senators, Penguins, Islanders, Maple Leafs

As you can see 9 of the final 22 games are against teams currently in the playoffs (Boston, Chicago, New Jersey, Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, Nashville, Ottawa & Pittsburgh).  However, only 5 games are against teams who are against teams who we would declare “out”, 4 of which are against Toronto and the Islanders (Florida the other).  So what we see is, the Flyers play against teams they are competing with for positioning, and have to beat the teams they are expected to beat. 

I expect the Flyers to finish sixth, take on the Northeast division winner (Buffalo or Ottawa) in the first round.  I think they could move up, but it’ll take a huge hot streak and a couple teams above them to go ice cold.  Possible, but not likely; the gap between the Flyers and the teams above them is just too big at this point.  This could work in the Flyers’ favor as they could avoid a first round matchup with either New Jersey or Pittsburgh.

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Trade Deadline News (or non news)

Yesterday the Flyers waived forward Riley Cote and defenseman Danny Syvret, both have since cleared waivers.  The team also put goalie Ray Emery on long term injury reserve, most likely ending his season.  Defenseman Ryan Parent was activated from the LTIR this morning.  As it stands now, the Flyers have about $1 million to work with.  Don’t forget that any player traded to the Flyers counts as a full season cap hit because the team has players on its LTIR (thank you Mike Rathje, July 1 can’t come soon enough). 

Ryan Parent will play tonight, even while being subject to all of the latest rumors.  Rumored is that he and possibly Braydon Coburn would head to Nashville for defenseman Dan Hamhuis.  Taking on two defensemen for one doesn’t make sense for Nashville, as they have seven defensemen already (including Hamhuis).  Nashville GM David Poile has stated that he won’t move Hamhuis unless an offer blows him away.  Nashville is also looking for draft picks, none of which the Flyers have.  I don’t think the Flyers have anything to offer the Predators that will knock their socks off, so I don’t see Hamhuis coming here unless Nashville lessens their asking price or Holmgren caves and overpays.

Olympic Hockey Final Four

It wasn’t easy for the United States but they advanced to the medal round with a 2-0 win over Switzerland.  Devils forward Zach Parise scored both goals (including one empty netter) and Ryan Miller was stellar in net, shutting the Swiss offense down.  Swiss goalie Jonas Hiller played great, but the offense did not give him support in the bid for an upset.  The Americans remain the only undefeated team in the tournament after the results of the quarterfinal games.

In the second quarterfinal, Russia took on Canada in a match that many projected to be a gold medal game at the beginning of the tournament.  It was expected to be an epic battle between two powerhouses but was nothing close to that.  The Canadians, apparently fired up over their loss to the US, came out storming, scoring three goals in the first 13 minutes of the game.  They took a 4-1 lead into the intermission, before going up 6-1 early in the second.  The sixth Canadian goal finally chased Russian goalie Evgeni Nabokov, whose play should not encourage San Jose Shark fans.  The Russians really never got anything going, as they were down the whole game and it seemed like they did not want to focus on playing defense from the get-go.  Both Mike Richards and Chris Pronger finished with an assist each.

The US’s opponent was determined in the third game of the night, between Finland and the Czech Republic.  The game was a defensive struggle, going 0-0 into the third period.  However, with less than 7 minutes to play in the game, and on the powerplay, Finnish defenseman (and former Flyer property) Janne Niskala shot the puck towards the net, which was redirected by Niklas Hagman to score the eventual game winner.  Valtteri Filppula added an empty netter to seal the game for the Finns. 

The final match of the night pitted medal favorite Sweden against Slovakia.  With nothing to lose, Slovakia gave it their all against the powerful Swedes, and they prevailed in a stunner, 4-3.  After a scoreless first period, the Slovaks scored two quick goals less than a minute apart by Marian Gaborik and Andrej Sekera.  Sweden answered back a couple minutes with a pair of their own quick goals by Patric Hornqvist & Henrik Zetterberg.  Pavol Demitra scored a powerplay goal with less than a minute to go in the period to put the Slovaks up heading into the final frame.  Tomas Kopecky scored halfway through the third for the Slovaks, which was followed by a Swedish goal by Daniel Alfredsson, but Slovak goalie Jaroslav Halak held down the fort and secured the upset win for Slovakia.  Former Flyer Peter Forsberg recorded an assist in what is likely his final Olympic game.

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The way the semifinals shapes up guarantees a Flyer will come back from Vancouver with a medal.  Kimmo Timonen’s Finnish squad takes on the U.S. at 3:00 tommorow, and Mike Richards and Chris Pronger’s Canadians play the upstart Slovaks in the second half of the doubleheader. 

If you can’t wait for Olympic hockey, the U.S. women’s team and the Canadian women’s team square off for gold this afternoon.

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The Flyers started practicing again today at the SkateZone. Ryan Parent and Danny Syvret are due back after the break, but just in case, the Flyers have recalled defenseman Joey Mormina from the Phantoms.

There has been no update on goaltender Ray Emery, which is leading some speculators to believe he is going to be shut down for the year.

Flyers sign D Lukas Krajicek

It wasn’t the most usual route to acquiring a player, but Paul Holmgren picked up a defenseman that he so desperately needed.  Tampa Bay re-signed Krajicek on July 1st, and then it all went south from there.  In December, he was placed on waivers, cleared, and was sent to the AHL Norfolk Admirals.  Last week, he left the minor league club without an explanation, allowing the Lightning to put him on unconditional waivers; once he cleared those, his contract was terminated with the club, making him an unrestricted free agent.

In comes Paul Holmgren.  Knowing his defensive woes due to injuries and performance, Holmgren has been trying to find a trade partner.  With no such luck thus far, the Flyers signed the 26 year old defenseman yesterday.  The 6’3, 205 pound Czech played in 23 games with the Lightning this year, only picking up one assist and being a -4.  He is in his 7th season, playing for the Panthers, Canucks and Lightning for a total of 301 games.

According to the Daily News’ Frank Seravalli, Krajicek was in Philadelphia yesterday, but did not play or dress.  He also accompanied the team on their charter flight to Calgary for tommorow night’s game.  He will wear #2, last worn by Derian Hatcher.

We learned yesterday that Flyers center Mika Pyorala was sent down to the AHL Adirondack Phantoms during yesterday’s game.  As we learned later with the Krajicek signing, it had to do with making a roster spot available for the new defenseman, but also giving Pyorala some playing time.

What does this mean for Ole-Kristian Tollefsen and Oskars Bartulis?  Well, at the moment, one of those two will be sitting out Monday’s game and for the forseeable future.  Bartulis may be sent down to the Phantoms to work on his game, as he has a 2-way contract.  As for when Ryan Parent and Danny Syvret come back, the Flyers will have a lot of choices for their third pairing.

Heating up the Rumor Mill

As the trade deadline gets closer, you’ll hear more rumors about players on the move.  Rumors will intensifty during the Olympic Break, when there will be less to talk about, NHL-wise.  As we get closer, we at Liberty Bell Sports will go through potential trade options for the Flyers. 

With the Atlanta Thrashers and Ilya Kovalchuk coming to town tonight, it is a good time to start talking about the NHL’s trading deadline.  Most likely the bigger deals will happen after the Olympic Break, as many teams are still in the race at this point, but don’t rule out the possibility of some deals happening before the Olympics.  Kovalchuk himself will probably not be dealt until March 3rd. 

Looking at the Flyers, it is obvious their biggest need is defense.  With Ryan Parent out until late February/early March and Danny Syvret having setbacks with his shoulder injury, the third pairing is rookie Oskars Bartulis, who has been unimpressive and oft-injured Ole-Kristian Tollefsen.  With Mika Pyorala practicing at defense, it shows the Flyers are desperate at the position.  The problem with acquiring someone (as was the case last year) is cap room.  Last season, the Flyers had to jettison Glen Metropolit and Ossi Vaananen on waivers and deal Scottie Upshall to Phoenix to make room for returning Danny Briere and to have some wiggle room for the rest of the season.

Marty Biron was a trade deadline acquistion in 2006.

This year, the Flyers seem to be in better shape capwise, but still don’t have much room to pick up a big name player, unless they move salary out.  However, the problem with that is most of their high priced talent have a “No Movement/Trade Clause” in their contracts.  Which means they cannot be moved by the Flyers unless they are asked to waive that clause.  This prevents a problem for a GM trying to add pieces for a Stanley Cup run. By the numbers and my unofficial math, we’ll have to clear up money just to continue with our current roster. 

Another problem is a lack of draft picks.  With their first two picks in 2010 gone, and their first two in 2011 (and a third in either 2010/2011), draft picks are something Paul Holmgren can’t deal away. If there is a deal made, you might see a prospect moved, because of the draft pick situation.  Could a current prospect entice a team to make a deal?  Depending on the player, but with the farm system the way it is, the Flyers would like to hang on to (at least) their top few.

Could one of the goalies fetch something?  With three goalies and very little cap room, it’s possible Holmgren is working the phones to see if one of his goalies can fetch either a depth player, or another draft pick.  However, teams know the situation the Flyers are in, and a backup goalie (heading into the stretch) is not a premium position.  Basically what we are looking at, unless some things change, is the team we are going to ride into May and hopefully June. 

We’ll be back as the deadline gets closer, with a deeper look at potential players available.  As for now, keep your eyes on the bottom of the standings, and come talk Flyers-Thrashers over on the forum for tonight’s game.